Friday, February 28, 2014

TNA Update

TNA is creeping higher and I am now in the red by about 6% on this trade. I still believe in this trade and I'm sticking to it. (Condidering I rarely make a loosing trade, I usually just wait it out) The resistance line has been adjusted higher which speaks even more for a bounce back sometime soon. It even looks like a megaphone pattern is forming. The market has a harder time deciding on a price and volatility is increasing. This is good for those of us that like to short leveraged ETFs. I'm adding to the short position at 83.30 if it goes up there. It is however always good to be aware of the risks. This shart could still go up steeply from here and build a classic BOT (blow off top) pattern. I won't stick around for long above 83.30. If it doesn't turn shortly I'll probably cut the losses.

Monday, February 24, 2014

Biotech bubble is ready to pop

I've been following biotech and it is the one sector with the most bubbly pattern. It is now at a place where shorting is very likely to be profitable. It's impossible to say if this is a long term top but it looks at least as a short term top and that a profitable trade can be made from here.

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Brazil is the last dog market

Now that the precious metals and miners have recovered the only short leveraged ETF with a price at least 100% above it's lows is the Brazil ETF BZQ. It's in a long drawn topping process. I am already in a small position and will continue to add short position on further ascents.

Is the market topping?

TNA has been one of the leaders of the long leveraged ETFs. It sure looks to me as a clear cut case of "touch of resistance". Similar charts are showing up in other long leveraged ETFs. It is risky to short long leveraged ETFs but the chart looks good enough for a try here. The risks are that the market doesn't care about the touch of resistance and just continues up. I don't think that will be the case here. The touch of resistance looks so clean and the last days of getting here is showing an exponential curve which is what I want to see in a scenario like this. The other risk is that the market tests the resistance line serveral times and this is only the first. That chance of that happening is large. Still, the chart should bounce down from here before it can test it a second time. There is also a third risk that the line drawn below is not the correct line and that it should actually be steeper which means the touch of resistance would happen at a higher position than below. But I think this is close enough to initiate a position.

Thursday, February 6, 2014

Good times

Things have been going great lately. In my effort to learn to trade the stock market I've made the following conclusions.

1. Find a system that is your own. Do not take advice from others because even if they are on to something you have to have the full picture to be effective, you can't get that from taking advice from others. I write this blog for myself. I have almost zero readers and that's ok.

 2. Manage bet size. Do not overextend yourself. This way you can stand if the trade goes against you and you have ammo left when the really good setups come.

3. Patience. Wait for the good trades to show up. If there's not a trade in a given month it's boring but it is totally ok.

4. Be prepared for the really good setups, you know them when you see them. I knew it in DUST and in UGAZ the other day. Bet hard but leave a little in reserve just in case. It's better to loose some profits than to blow up the account.

5. Keep a diary. This blog is my diary. Putting thoughts into text makes the thoughts clearer. Is a trading idea not good enough it will show when you try to describe it.