Friday, August 29, 2014

New short: TMF

I'm not sure 20+ treasuries can continue to climb uninterupted for much longer. The chart is showing peaky behaviour and is worth a small short position.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Portfolio update and plans

My portfolio keeps climbing thanks to many small contributions like shorting DGAZ, shorting RUSS, shorting XIV.

I'm going to write down some thoughts about going forward, I have bull ideas, bear ideas and neutral ideas from the levels we are at today.

From the bear perspective:

I want to go short the parabola in Tech stocks. I will accumule TQQQ starting at 90, if it goes there.

I'm already long and plus on volatility through shorting XIV.

From the bull perspective:

I like to make more short term trades in something liquid and volatile like short SPXS or TZA using the 3 weeks 5 min chart.

I like to be long unloved regions like EGPT, ARGT, EWP, RSX, GREK and shorting RUSS which as a bonus also is highly volatile.

I want to be short inverse biotech through BIS but I need a peak to get a good entry level. The same with inverse junior miners JDST.

I want to be long marketability even with leverage but again I need a good entry point after a retracement. Current levels are risky. Available ETFs are RETL and UGE but they have bad liquidity.

I will short any leveraged inverse ETF that have signs of a peak in it's chart pattern.

From a more neutral perspective

I want to short both DGAZ and UGAZ due to their volatility.
I want to short yen but with a limited amount.
I want to short leveraged gold and silver, timed on peaks.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Is this the new normal?

This chart just keeps pushing back from every retracement. Hey let's see the monthly chart.
Does this look sustainable? No way. I'm not short yet but it is getting very close.

Friday, August 15, 2014

My method

Yeey, I got a new person answering my question if they've been on this blog before. :D Hi there, who ever you are!

It's been a year since I started with this blog and my trading method. I will post the year results soon. But if I had to guess I would say I made about 100% on the portfolio. A fantastic result I think!

I want to write a little more about my method. There hasn't been a lot of technical setups lately. I like to trade spikes (or bubbles) mostly in inverse leveraged ETFs. These ETFs tend to go down over time and if you start shorting them where a spike is chances are you have a decent entry point. The second part of my method is to manage bet size so that if I'm wrong and the trade goes against me I have enough total portfolio capital to wait for the trade to turn in my favour again. This can be risky. For instance the DUST EFT once climbed over 600% from bottom to top before it turned. Shorting 600% against you is hard to survive. But this is not a common occurance and I would have had to get in close to the bottom to be caught in that entire move. The third part of my method is to keep accumulating if the trade goes against me. Again this is risky as the position increases while it goes against me. Basically I have a method that will give me far above average gains in most markets but if there is something unexpected that happens, like a 600% climb in an inverse ETF, I might blow up the account.